Three challenges on the international scene
The risk of getting bogged down in the Central
CAR occupy a good position in the intervention of the head of state during his wishes to the French without a doubt. Because Sangaris operation , which imagined a lesser extent than in Mali, finally proves more dangerous for the French troops. François Hollande warned it would only a security operation in support of the African forces already present. And the number of troops , 1,600 men , also not allowed to have more bold ambitions. However, in 2014, France will remain the frontline. Worse, it could soon be faced with the risk of sinking . Quagmire is still far away, but the first mission of disarmament and cantonment of armed one month after the start of the operation groups is not fully seated . "Enemies" that blend into the population are difficult to identify. And difficult to recover weapons.
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If France wants to stop the spiral of hatred and horror that threatens the Central Civil War , it will send additional troops . Or leave? Unlikely, lest the country plunge further into chaos, and France is thereby discredit . François Hollande can not rely on the troops under-equipped African forces and poorly - trained, nor its European partners who do not wish to become more involved militarily.
In Mali , the terrorist threat is not excluded
The situation is a little more under control in Mali. Although , one year after the beginning of the Serval operation , the time is still not on the balance sheet . In 2014 , France will remain in Mali and it will still be there for a few years . On the ground, the military device must be reduced from 2,800 to a thousand men in February 2014.
However, the terrorist threat in the Sahel has not disappeared and Paris will readjust its mission based on this reduced number . Terrorists and their leaders, including the now famous Mokhtar Belmokhtar are fleeing but determined not to give up the fight .
On the political front , in Kidal , which is part of the revolt , the dialogue between the MNLA and Bamako is stalled. Without political agreement , hard to see a return to security .
The formation of the Malian army and the pursuit of development aid will be further determinants for stabilizing the country.
Syrian file : France without voice
" If Geneva -2 should be confirmation of Bashar al -Assad 's political transition or Bashar al -Assad Bashar al- Assad, there is still little chance that we recognize this appointment as having been political solution to the Syrian issue . " We have known Francois Hollande , speaking and December 20 , more vindictive on the subject ...
The President and his Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius had yet taken the lead in the last two years of support to the Syrian opposition , helping to form the Friends of the Syrian people by vote of sanctions by the European Union against the Syrian regime , with the resolutions of the Security Council and going in September to promote a military solution after confirming the use of chemical weapons against Damascus population. Las ... Without U.S. support on military means , against the rise of Islamic movements on the ground and military victories Assad, Paris very quickly got the word a little lower. And the risk is great to see François Hollande remain voiceless in 2014.
While many residents in the hopes held Geneva -2 where a political transition should be organized , little by little, these expectations have dried up with no other solution to the bloody conflict emerges . Holding Geneva -2 22 January unfortunately not to change that much.
Unemployment , unemployment, unemployment still ... and taxes as
The last reversal on the horizon?
2013 should be the year of the reversal of the trend in unemployment ? 2014 is also the year of the reversal of the curve. Even OF inversions. Because at the moment , unemployment does not decrease frankly . Certainly , the youth has been declining since the summer , said the Ministry of Labour. While the figures for December will not be known until January , says Michel Sapin. While , on average, the number of job seekers decreased 1,350 per month in the last quarter , while it increased from 30,000 at the beginning of the year, thanks to subsidized jobs , jobs and contracts for future generation . But for a real fall , it will be the return to strong growth. And it is not for now . Bleak outlook in Europe, rising interest rates in the United States , declining demand in emerging markets : business investment is expected in France . Result: economists predict between 0.6 % and 1.3% GDP growth next year , the government 0.9%. Insufficient to fill the 150,000 new entrants to the labor market and those who are already pointing to the employment center . What oscillating curve of unemployment until 2015.
Overhaul or not overhaul taxes?
The surprise announcement of an " overhaul " tax gave Jean- Marc Ayrault a stay Matignon. It will also give headaches to the entire government in 2014. The main ingredients of a great reform are well known : the merger of income tax and the CSG , withholding tax , reform of the financing of social security. France has high theoretical rates that hinder investment and grow " tax ras-le- bol" , exceptions sometimes unfair that depress revenues, and not always optimal public spending. Problem: the reform will be a constant level of levies, which is to take from some to give to others. A major policy challenge , given the speed with which the sling red caps forced the government to postpone the implementation of the heavy tax burden . What also worry investors , for whom stability is a key element . " We will not undo what has been done , particularly to businesses to stimulate growth. We address the economic world clearly saying that we want to simplify and stabilize ," says Jean- Marc Ayrault, who started working groups . The first proposal , due in the summer , will be included in the Finance Bill in the autumn. But François Hollande has already warned the reform will "time of the quinquennium ." And then ?
What future for the rigor ?
One of the main constraints of the majority, reduce public deficits quickly while stimulating growth, comes straight from Brussels. But in 2014, the European Parliament elections will lead to a new team to the Commission. Once again , the Heads of State and Government will initiate a showdown on the casting: exit Jose Manuel Barroso, place ... less rigor , more federalism ? Pooling of debt , multiplication of common investments ... A Bercy, Pierre Moscovici calls even for the creation of a budget in the euro zone, which would be in charge of creating a European unemployment insurance system. Not sure , however, that Chancellor Angela Merkel , even in coalition with the Social Democrats SPD to demonstrate greater flexibility today. Germany first calls for the creation of contracts committing member states to Brussels to conduct structural reforms. As to ensure savings and retirement of an aging population , many Europeans still seem determined to demand greater productivity of its workforce . What does France think of all this? Winless on the European left , flexibility of the labor market, reducing deficits and free trade remain the hallmarks of the European project.
Elections , it is now , the redesign is when?
Find the odds
While the head of state had its initiatives on the international stage to burnish his image, he recorded , at the end of the year, a confidence rating fell below 25 %, a record under the Fifth Republic . Three months and four municipal European , can he recover ? The answer probably depends largely on the success or not of its economic policy , including his famous promise to reverse the trend in unemployment . But the Head of State must also restore his personal rating , seriously messed up .
He finished 2013 by surfacing the image of Mr. Small jokes , after his quip about the security situation in Algeria . His image of unifying president , as opposed to its predecessor, was also dented by boos and whistles in the morning of November 11 on the Champs- Elysées, and those who accompanied his visit on the same day Oyonnax, Ain , where he made a tribute to the Resistance. In early October, in the aisles of " Summit breeding " of Cournon in the Puy -de -Dôme , he had also been copiously booed .
More serious episode Leonarda : he printed in the mind of the image of a French president negotiating directly by TV interposed with a girl of 15 years.
Elections in the form of sanctions ?
This disenchantment of the French Will it result in local and European polls ? Socialists insist them on the local aspect of the municipal elections. They start with some advantages , since they run the majority of cities of over 30,000 inhabitants ( and almost all of those over 100,000) . To preserve them, they work tirelessly to unite the left in the 1st round . "But the national context is rather favorable to the right, there will be a punishment vote against the government that is likely to be significantly more powerful than in 2008 , when it was already violent " for the Sarkozy camp , predicted political analyst Jerome Fourquet , the FIFG . The danger comes mainly from the East : Strasbourg , Metz, Reims are threatened. In the West, Angers and Laval are prime targets for the UMP. All eyes will also turn to Marseille, the Socialist Patrick Mennucci hope rob the UMP Jean- Claude Gaudin . > Six cities to monitor
FN in ambush
The FN can he deprive the UMP many conquests and facilitate the renewal of socialists in some town halls ? Given its scores in the elections - the first but also the second round - the far-right would cause tens of triangular . Today almost absent municipal councils, the FN hopes to seize of "at least ten cities" , according Marion Marechal - Le Pen. If the FN party should grab some town halls, he hopes to extend its territorial network by installing advisers in many cities and make her booty useful windows. A way to fill his " credibility gap ," according to its president , Marine Le Pen, who intends to show that his party is now able to "manage" municipalities and forget Vitrolles , Marignane and Orange .
The score FN European will also watched closely. Vote protest par excellence, the European elections could provide a symbolic victory in far-right party , which seems able to pass the PS and UMP. According to a poll Ifop for " Le Nouvel Observateur" of 9 October , the National Front is credited with 24% of the vote against 22% for the UMP and 19% for PS . May 25 evening , the National Front could proclaim himself " the first party of France ." An earth tremor that would be a defeat for Francois Hollande . But also for the entire Republican party .
UMP : Pending Sarkozy ...
A UMP 2014 will , it is promised, the year of the union. No more bites , harsh criticism and polemics positions ... The party hopes to reap the fruits of ambient exasperation. Hence the eagerness of President Jean -Francois Cope to emphasize the "national scope " of the municipal elections. And that of François Fillon to establish as ' referendum against the tax stunner . "
But there is little chance that things are going well , even if the party will almost together at the end of January its 10 proposals for France at a national conference. A nice photo of united family , that should not reflect the atmosphere of the year. For every second that passes is one less before the primary for the presidency in 2017 : the year ahead will be more than ever the ambitious . Sarkozy in the lead.
The former president , in his Christmas greetings posted on Facebook, the French promised : " I 'll always be there with you ." At last , skillfully disseminated by guests with its offices Miromesnil , Nicolas Sarkozy could speak to the summer , after the European elections. To force him to return to the arena, some to argue for the UMP presidential primary be held in 2015 and not in 2016 , as Valerie Pecresse , Laurent Wauquiez and Alain Juppé.
The time reshuffle
In announcing surprise , November 19 , a " rethinking " of taxation, Jean- Marc Ayrault seems to have saved his position at Matignon ... But for how long? It is unclear the head of state change of prime minister during the election campaign , while municipal and European approach . In severe setbacks however , the days will be counted Ayrault .
Only a month after its announcement on the great " flattening " tax , a large majority of French (64%) said always wanted a redesign with change of Prime Minister, as the barometer BVA . According to our survey LH2 November , the French would like to see succeed Ayrault at Matignon Manuel Valls , 35% of them , against 21% for Martine Aubry and 9% for Laurent Fabius (19% of respondents would choose none of the personalities 10% were undecided ) .
The societal reforms stalled ?
LDCs, end of life, " marriage for all" in 2014 ?
After a long dispute on the societal year, during which the anti- gay marriage are on the frontlines , other thorny yards could revive tensions . If family law , expected in March , depart the issue of medically assisted procreation (MAP ) to female couples , François Hollande pledged in the spring to follow the advice of the National Consultative Ethics Committee (CCNE) . It should decide in March.
Parliament should also be entered before the end of the year a bill at the end of life. On this point, the final opinion of CCNE is expected in February. A citizens' panel convened by the Committee in favor of his side a " legalization of physician-assisted suicide " but against registration of the euthanasia law.
Spring will also be marked by the debate penal reform . The bill , which aims to fight against recidivism, will create a new sentence outside prison criminal coercion. Rejected after the municipal , parliamentary proceedings begin on April 8 . Heated debates ahead , as the right is a headwind against the project.
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