"Stabilizing unemployment at year-end is already a performance" !!

" In the fourth quarter, the government was able to turn things around , reversing the trend in unemployment ," said Labour Minister Michel Sapin Thursday, December 26 , shortly after the publication of the November figures . According to recent data , the unemployed category A ( no activity ) were, however, more than 17,800 in October . Broken promise ? Or hazards of a curve very volatile behavior? What Eric Heyer, deputy director of the Department Analysis and Forecasts to French Economic Observatory ( OFCE ) .

The curve is inverted it yes or no?

- No. We must take the monthly figures very carefully . The number of job seekers not having worked all last month (category A) is up after having fallen in the previous month . Conversely, categories B and C , that is to say, applicants with some work during the previous month , decreased after increasing . And together , the categories A, B and C decrease in November , after rising in October. These data appear to reflect a particular stabilization of unemployment. We are on a plateau that reflects the quality of our economic activity .

Is it a success or a failure of the government ?

- Between the two . The situation is catastrophic French companies : they are overstaffed in bad financial situation, they have no economic outlook . In parallel, the workforce is dynamic : there is 140,000 new entrants to the labor market each year, which must find a job. Under these conditions, stabilize unemployment at year-end is already a performance. We can say that the government does not keep his promise. But it was not tenable.

Stabilization is it partly due to the cancellation of some unemployed who have arrived at the end of rights?

- No. There are job losses in the private and subsidized employment creation , but we do not see an explosion in the number of radiation as we have seen in August , when the computer bug . It is true that there are more and more long-term unemployed , and some come to the end of their benefit period. But they are still counted in the statistics .

We see categories B and C empty and Class A fill. This means that unemployed with a small business in October have not been in November ?

- Yes, indeed. There each year 21 million employment contracts signed in France . Two-thirds are contracts of less than one month: two days, a week or two ... Many people sign a contract one week , and then not have for more than a month, etc. . The back and forth between categories A, B and C is permanent.

Can we see this month the effect of subsidized jobs ?

- Yes. Without them , there would have been no stabilization. Between November 2012 and November 2013 , unemployment rose by almost 5% , which corresponds perfectly to our level of growth , no . There should have been 280,000 more unemployed , there was much less through subsidized jobs .

What are your plans for next year ?

- Although growth will be better than this year , the rate will not be enough to create jobs . So we should see the unemployment further progress next year. A weaker increase this year , but an increase nonetheless.