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Monday, November 25, 2013

Iran: Israel, "if diplomacy fails, the military option is"

Emmanuel Navon is professor of international relations at the University of Tel Aviv. He is also a member of the Likud Central Committee , the party of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It explains why the agreement is "bad" for the Jewish state and returns on the assumption of a military response.

 Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is not bound by the agreement reached in Geneva on the Iranian nuclear issue . Why this deal is bad for Israel ?

- Firstly , we are not bound to this agreement because Israel was not present at the negotiating table. Then , it is particularly problematic for several reasons .

First, it is a temporary arrangement . The question is whether, in the period of six months, what will be the reaction of Americans if the Iranians do not respect the terms of the agreement .

Secondly, for the first time , the international community recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium. Certainly, at 5%. But the uranium that has been enriched to 20% is set aside , or that uranium can be used to make a nuclear weapon . And there continued enrichment turbines . Half of the 18,000 turbines will continue to be used.

Finally, the Arak plant is still there. Certainly, the construction is stopped, but it is not expected to dismantle .

In fact, everything goes in the direction of a temporary slowdown in the Iranian nuclear program that everyone knows that it is for military purposes . So the real question is : if Iran does not comply with the terms of the agreement , what will the U.S. response ? What will the reaction of Paris , so firm in negotiations on the issue of Arak ? If the IAEA catches Iran handed cheating the West, the United States they react by a military operation ? It is not written anywhere. Iranians today are not under threat.

 Prime Minister ensures that Israel " will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear military capabilities ." Does it refer to possible military strikes ?

- The answer is clearly yes . If diplomacy fails , given that Israel's policy - which is also the official United States - is to stop Iran by all means have a nuclear weapon , it means that the military option exists. U.S. military threat is less credible. It was in the past and was one reason for the arrival of Iranians around the negotiating table.

If the international community fails to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons , it means that the military option is more topical than ever.

The agreement is for six months. It all depends on how Iran will apply . If it violates blatantly and Americans and Europeans do nothing, then the option will immediately open. If there is a strong response , it would make the unlikely Israeli military operation .

This agreement seems to isolate Israel even further on the international scene . Is this a reality?

- I do not see at all how Israel would be isolated . We have close diplomatic and economic strategic relations with most countries in the world. This agreement does not satisfy Israeli demands , it is very clear . But on the other hand, it is less bad than what was negotiated there between two weeks and another with Israeli diplomacy . The fact that the international community is leaning so closely on the Iranian issue is the result of a very active Israeli diplomacy past five to six years. This is because Israel has continued to put pressure on the United States , Russia and France that the agreement is not as bad as it could be . Proactive Israeli diplomacy has been effective. After , of course, we can not think Israel can dictate its will to the world ! It would have been unrealistic to expect that the negotiators would sign an agreement according to Israeli wishes ... 

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