Lower unemployment: "Holland can win his bet"

" The reversal of the trend in unemployment is started " : the announcement of the figures for October , which recorded a decline of 20,500 jobseekers , Michel Sapin is pleased François Hollande poised to win his bet for employment. Marion Cochard , an economist at the French Economic Observatory ( OFCE ) prefer to qualify the good news , seeing instead a tendency to ... stabilization. Interview.

On October , Pôle Emploi fell by 20,500 job seekers Class Is this a surprise?

- Not so much . We knew that the government aimed to reverse the trend in unemployment by the end of the year. With the arrangements put in place, including subsidized jobs were expected to stabilize the number of unemployed .

François Hollande would be poised to win the challenge of reversing the trend in unemployment by the end of the year ?

- First, it should be noted that the monthly figures are volatile. Rather we must look at the numbers of two or three consecutive months. In recent months , the trend is a continued deterioration in private employment , offset by a rise in subsidized jobs . This acceleration of subsidized jobs at the end of the year was desired by the government. In the coming months we can expect to have, alternately rising and months of months of decline , which in fact reflects a stabilization in the number of unemployed. In this sense, it is possible that François Hollande takes his bet.

Should we rejoice in these numbers?

- There is good news and bad news . The decrease in unemployed category A is of course good news. But if we look at the figures in detail , there is a sharp rise in unemployed category B and C , which are job seekers who have worked a few hours during the month . In other words, it is the CSD and interims . And if you take all three categories , there is an increase of nearly 40,000 job seekers . Porosity between different categories increases , reflecting an increase in precarious labor market. More and more deals are for short jobs, and 70 % of new hires are on contracts of less than one month. Over the coming months , we can expect to see people oscillate between the different categories .

Can we still talk about lower unemployment ?

- Yes, because if we take the unemployed definition of the International Labour Office , are only those who have not worked at all during the past month. In this sense, France actually experienced a decline in unemployment in October.

What explains this decline ?

- There are three explanations. First, some of the unemployed Class A found small time jobs , and thus became Class B or C. There is also the strong acceleration of supported employment . Finally , it is interesting to look at the surge in unemployed category D , which concerns people contract reclassification transition or security professional , who are accompanying measures following , including redundancies and social plans.

These people are not considered unemployed in category A, but may become at the end of their contracts. Hollow , so we see that we destroyed fewer jobs CSD and interim but we continue to destroy CDI . All this leads to still qualify the next " good news."

The Ministry of Labour points out that if we take the average of the last three months, there is a decrease of 3,500 job seekers per month. Is this an appropriate way to interpret the numbers?

- Yes, look at the figures over time is relevant. However, it should still see reported in nearly 3.3 million unemployed , a decrease of 3,500 per month, is zero.